26 for 2006 Looking Back
Last year I made 26 predictions for 2006, some tongue in cheek. I will not be mistaken for Nostradamus, but we should look back if only to laugh.
1. The Republicans will lose two seats in the Senate and a net gain of 1 in the House. Despite having control of the majority of governorships, the Supreme Court, the White House, and Congress, the press will continue to say the country is evenly divided.
Boy was I wrong on this one. “Next time, trust the numbers and can the wishful thinking.” – Johan Hood, National Review Online “It Was the Best of Times, It Was the Worst of Times”
2. Howard Dean will be dumped by the DNC by the end of the year.
Howard Dean fought the whole year with party leaders, but ended up a big winner.
3. Bryan Kennedy will not raise $1.5 million, or even $1 million, and will get less votes this time than last time against Congressman Sensenbrenner. Called this one correctly. In 2004, Kennedy got 129,384 votes. In 2006, Kennedy got 112,451 votes. He raised $312432.27.
4. The Wisconsin House and Senate delegation will not change next year, except in Green Bay where State Representative John Gard (R-Peshtigo/Sun Prairie) will succeed Congressman Mark Green. Whoops. Second Assembly Speaker to crash in that district.
5. Tim Michels will run against Herb Kohl. He will not spend as much as Kohl. Kohl will win in a landslide. Hey, Owen told me he was running.
6. Kohl’s landslide will not help Governor Doyle, who loses to Congressman Mark Green. Right primary winner, wrong result. “I’m an elections lawyer retained in connection with a matter before the Elections Board” – Michael S. Maistelman
7. Justin Sowa will not get the necessary signatures to run in the Democrat primary for Congress in Paul Ryan’s district. Jeff Thomas will take up smoking before a Democrat beats Paul Ryan in that district again. Sowa did not run, and I guessed the right primary winner. Ryan won easily.
8. Reversing my early thoughts on this race, Peg Lautenschlager holds on to beat Kathleen Falk in the primary only to lose to Paul Bucher. Bucher will not run an ad with the police video of Lautenschlager’s drunk driving arrest but everyone in Wisconsin will see it on the internet before the election is over. (I expect to be able to link to it in July.)
Early thoughts are best. Van Hollen (an answer to a trivia question this time last year) defeated Kathleen Falk, no matter what TMJ4 news tells you.
9. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel will have to deal with two major internal scandals. One will be uncovered by WISN radio’s Mark Belling, and the other by Michael Horne or Bruce Murphy. Um, no.
10. The Republicans will retain control of the state legislature, but losing two state senate seats will rattle the nerves over in that caucus causing them to replace Dale Schultz as majority leader. Look for Mary Lazich to make a run for the position. Um, no, but Schultz is out as Minority Leader.
11. The Republicans will retain the State Senate seat currently held by the outgoing Cathy Stepp. The Republican State Senate will spend too much time, effort and money to hold onto the seat. Define “too much.”
12. State Senator Tom Reynolds will not have to face a primary opponent and will win re-election handily. No primary opponent, and then disaster.
13. Brett Favre will not retire. Steve Mariucci will be the head coach by the end of 2006. Favre did not retire. Mariucci should have been named the head coach.
14. Bill Parcells will not retire in Dallas. Jerry Jones will offer him whatever it takes to keep him. So far, so good, but I sense that Parcells’ defensive coordinator better look at the want ads.
15. The Milwaukee Brewers will be within five wins of last year’s record and miss the playoffs. Missed it by that much.
16. The Badgers football team will have a losing record next season. Who are those guys?
17. Charlie Sykes will have a blogger on his regular Sunday morning panel show (not a special) other than Jessica McBride or Owen of Boots and Sabers at least once next year. (McBride will continue to be a regular panelist.) Does Deb Jordahl count?
18. Mark Belling will say something else that will cause WISN management to have to negotiate with protestors. He inked a contract extension.
19. Nothing will come of the “scandals” surrounding Jim Doyle, other than a few editorials and a few campaign ads. There will be no prosecutions of anyone in the Doyle administration. Missed by one. Georgia on my mind.
20. The ethanol mandate will pass and be signed by Governor Doyle. Blogosphere and talk radio stall this disaster for one year. Can we do it again?
21. TABOR will not get out of committee next year. TABOR didn’t. TPA did, sort of, in a form weaker than the governor’s budget freeze. Republicans look like idiots. Nothing passed. If anything, I was too optimistic. Far better if the damn thing had died in committee.
22. The people responsible for slashing the tires of Republican GOTV vans in 2004 will not see any jail time and will be working on Democrat political campaigns in 2006. Too easy.
23. Milwaukee elections will be a disaster again. In September.24. There will be more murders in the City of Milwaukee in 2006 than in 2005. Turns out there were more shootings in Milwaukee this year but there were fewer fatalities. All the people with good aim must’ve been killed last year.
25. Hollywood will make less money next year than this year. I was closer than I thought. “If not for the US$423-million domestic haul of Depp’s “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest,” Hollywood would have been dead-even with its lowly box-office results of 2005, the worst year for movie admissions in almost a decade.” – Associated Press, 12/25/06
26. Taxes will go up for most people in the state.