Tuesday, November 21st, 2017

Belling’s Kentucky Derby analysis


WISN’s Mark Belling always offers an interesting analysis of the Kentucky Derby.  This year he added a few comments about the race itself:

The Kentucky Derby used to be America’s greatest horse race.  It’s not anymore; it’s just the weirdest.  I could go on forever about the frailty of the breed, the inability of modern horses to run a distance, wimpy training techniques, the insanity of a 20-horse field and a lot of other reasons why this race has become an inscrutable mess in which the winner often goes on to, well, nothing.   Mine That Bird—the unlikeliest winner of all when he won two years ago—never won again.  Super Saver, last year’s winner, didn’t do a thing the rest of the year.  This is the trend.   Mediocre horses can win and the race itself is an equine exterminator.  But it’s still the one race Americans who don’t follow horse racing pay attention to. It’s also the one all of us horse owners want to win.  As for gamblers, it’s a great thing because the size of the field and the bizarre results lead to huge payouts in the exacta, trifecta, superfecta, pick three and pick four pools. This year’s field is the worst I’ve ever seen with the possible exception of 1998 when mediocre Real Quiet almost won the Triple Crown.   Most of the top three year olds this year have gotten slower as the season has progressed.  It’s not supposed to work that way.  Six weeks ago many were saying Uncle Mo would win the Triple Crown.  Now, we don’t even know if he’ll be scratched before the race.

I suggest reading the whole thing to see his picks for the race. If Belling hits his trifecta, with a 30-1 finishing first, that will not be a bad pay day at all.

Update! Belling nailed the exacta that paid $327 on a $2 bet.

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