Friday, December 9th, 2016

Don’t write any candidate off

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The contest for president is still wide open, as I explain in this week’s column.

The day of the New Hampshire primary, the news broke on Fox News that Clinton was reorganizing her staff. By the end of the evening, Clinton was giving her victory speech, a quick and inexplicable turnaround.

Funny how things change. It wasn’t long before the Iowa caucus that Sen. Barack Obama was being written off. Now he’s won Iowa decisively and finished a strong second in New Hampshire, two states with a minimal black vote.

Fox News reported Tuesday night their exit polls showed Clinton finished much better among women, while Obama did much better among men. As the two candidates head into states with larger black populations, it will be interesting to see if Obama can bring the black vote home and if that will be enough of a margin to defeat Clinton’s hold on traditional Democratic voters.

Former Sen. John Edwards (not to be confused with the television psychic Jon Edward) finished a distant third in New Hampshire after finishing second in Iowa. Most analysts are writing him off. But then again, most analysts wrote off Clinton and Obama.

The Republicans debated tonight and this time (according to the post-debate analysis focus group) it was Fred Thompson’s turn to shine.

Romney wins Michigan, Thompson wins South Carolina, Giuliani wins Florida, this thing could go all the way to the convention.

Well, except for Ron Paul:

And if you’re wondering about former Libertarian candidate for president Congressman Ron Paul, currently running as a Republican, his supporters are trying to raise money to fly a blimp and staging virtual campaign rallies in the “World of Warcraft” online game. Paul will sew up the Orc vote, even as The New Republic publishes revelations about the racist screeds published in Paul’s newsletters.

The Michigan primary is Tuesday, and then place your bets, folks. Four days later is the Nevada primary, and anyone can still win on both sides.

Update!Re-watching the Republican debate with the lovely Doreen from Waukesha. Doreen’s chanting, “Go Fred Go!” But what we’re laughing at is the different candidates’ reactions to the crazy old man on the end, Ron Paul. Romney looks concerned, like Paul might hurt himself. McCain can’t decide whether to laugh or beat the snot out of Paul. Huckabee just kinda glances upward when he’s not thinking, “This guy is wasting my time.” Giuliani looks like he’s trying hard not to laugh. Fred uses the time to think about his next one-liner. Meanwhile Paul looks at the others like they’re all members of the Tri-Lateral Commission.

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