Friday, December 9th, 2016

Election predictions

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Take them for what their worth. My track record on predictions is not pretty, although I do well on races I take an intense interest in. I don’t make formal endorsements at the Wigderson Library & Pub, although my preferences are often obvious.

Gableman vs. Butler

I don’t think Gableman established the “law and order” narrative he needed to oust Butler. Butler as the incumbent was always going to be difficult to be beat, and his side outspent the challenger’s side. I also think the Gableman campaign really did hurt itself with the ad that misstated Justice Butler’s role in the defense and eventual release of a sex offender who re-offended after serving his term.

Ironically, if Gableman had taken the high road and kept the race to a discussion of judicial philosophy and particular rulings by the court, I think Gableman would have won. I also think the Butler campaign could’ve scored real points on Gableman’s refusal to prosecute left-wing domestic terrorists who attacked the Project ELF facility, just after the 9-11 attacks.

Butler wins 55%-45%.

Constitutional Amendment on the Frankenstein Veto

Despite the Capital Times contortions to protect the governor’s powers, there was no organized effort to stop this amendment. The only fear for amendment supporters is that this was too far “under the radar” and too many Wisconsinites will vote no on principle. Even Doyle isn’t out there trying to protect his veto power. I suspect passage by “beating Ed Garvey”-like margins here.

Gleisner vs. Neubauer

If you had asked me a week ago, I would’ve said Gleisner in a landslide. Then Gleisner’s mental health became an issue and that’s never good for a candidate. Sykes and Belling both objected to Gleisner calling himself a conservative. On the flip side, Gleisner has has strong support from Waukesha conservatives and made a case that he is pro-life. Now it’s a squeaker either way. I’m predicting Neubauer 52%-48%, although I’m not sure what the Gleisner camp could have done differently.

Locally:

Waukesha County Board:
I’m betting Hutton over Marchese in district 3, Kolb over Mitchell in district 24. In District 22 Peter Gundrum (inc.) over Paul Lincoln Scheuble, and Patton loses to Wimmer in District 19.

Other races:
Schumann wins re-election in Delafield as mayor. Ken Harenda keeps his seat on the New Berlin Common Council. Bill Moore loses to JJ Blonien. In Waukesha District 3, Christopher Hernandez out-worked Lori Howe. Menomonee Falls Village Board Seat 1, Jefferson Davis will lose to Sharon Ellis and misfile his paperwork. New Berlin School Board the winners will be Art Marquardt (inc.) and David Maxey. Hartford’s school referendum will lose while Elmbrook’s will pass this time.

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