Tuesday, September 27th, 2016

Hovde closing gap according to two polls

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In this week’s column for the Waukesha Freeman, I talked about how Eric Hovde might be well-positioned to win the Republican nomination for Senate.  The same day my column appeared, Hovde’s campaign announced new poll results showing them a close second behind former Governor Tommy Thompson. Former Congressman Mark Neumann shows running a distant third.

o Thompson – 34

o Hovde – 29

o Neumann – 16

o Fitzgerald – 7

o Undecided – 14

The pollster had this to say about the recent Marquette poll:

While the Marquette survey does give us a glimpse into general trends within the GOP primary, it is structurally incapable of providing the accuracy we get from a dedicated primary survey. We do not fault the Marquette poll as it follows widely accepted methodological practices. However, it is not a dedicated GOP primary poll, which is often cost prohibitive for media outlets and universities. In addition, the Marquette survey’s geographic distribution reflects historic turnout trends for statewide general elections but not GOP primaries.

I understand the criticism of the Marquette poll, and I believe the Marquette poll was off a bit in the Democratic primary in the recall, but I’d feel better if an external poll corroborated the findings of Hovde’s poll.

The poll was conducted June 26th and 27th, and the counties were “stratified” to “reflect historic turnout trends.”

This follows an internal poll by Congressman Tammy Baldwin’s campaign that showed Hovde and Thompson essentially tied, with Neumann far back in third again.

Tommy Thompson …………… 26

Eric Hovde ……………………… 27

Mark Neumann ………………… 13

Jeff Fitzgerald ……………………. 9

Not sure ………………………….. 26

According to the poll description,”Conducted June 19-21, 2012 among voters who had participated in the 2008 or 2010 primary, screened for likely participation in the August Republican primary. Sixty-six (66) percent of respondents identify as Republicans, 32 percent as independents, and 3 percent as Democrats.”

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