Republicans scored a major victory in the elections in Virginia last Tuesday. They swept the three statewide offices and reversed Democratic hopes of turning the state into a blue state. The election was devastating for Democrats in Virginia, and a complete reversal of fortune from last year’s presidential election. Whether the election was a referendum on the popularity of President Obama or just the natural swing of politics, Virginia’s election may foreshadow Wisconsin in 2010.

Republicans even made remarkable gains among urban voters.

Like Webb, Tester and McCaskill, Deeds needed a big turnout in urban areas. He didn’t get it. Instead, the Republican, Robert McDonnell, reversed recent trends in the state, winning nearly 54% of the urban vote. Turnout was down in the rest of the state, compared to the governor’s race four years ago — especially in rural areas. But the number of voters increased slightly in the urban and exurban counties in Northern Virginia.

That the Republican was able to reverse the conventional wisdom and gain support with increased turnout in urban areas should make Democrats nervous. Barrett’s likely opponent, Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker, has already been building a base in Milwaukee County. Walker’s fight with the Milwaukee County Board over the budget has been a boost to his organizing efforts. We could be tempted to believe the county board is secretly trying to help Walker’s campaign by trying to pass the wheel tax.

Granted the elections for county executive are non-partisan, and that Walker is likely to experience a drop off in support during a partisan race. However, Barrett’s people will have to ask themselves whether the drop off will be significant enough for the Democratic candidate to rack up the huge majority needed in the county (and in Dane County) to offset the support Republicans traditionally receive outside Wisconsin’s two largest urban centers.

Barrett will also have to deal with the enthusiasm gap heading into next November. Milwaukee’s Democrats are largely against Barrett’s proposal to take over MPS, including the African American leadership. The Ed Garvey wing of the party and the teachers unions are not backers of the project, either. Barrett has little to offer them to restore their enthusiasm for his campaign.

Turnout of urban African Americans is key to the Democrats’ hopes in 2010. An unmotivated turnout machine, without Barack Obama at the top of the ticket, is not going to produce the same results as 2008.

Backlash against the overreach of the Obama Administration, the unpopularity of Governor Doyle and his policies, and likely high unemployment can only help fuel Republican enthusiasm at the polls next November. The most important turnout ally for the Republicans will be the economy. Exit polls in Virginia show just how much:

Perhaps most striking were economic views: A vast 89 percent in New Jersey and 85 percent in Virginia said they were worried about the direction of the nation’s economy in the next year; 56 percent and 53 percent, respectively, said they were “very” worried about it.

Voters who expressed the highest levels of economic discontent heavily favored the Republican candidates in both states – underscoring the challenge Obama and his party may face in 2010 if economic attitudes don’t improve. The analogy is to 1994, when nearly six in 10 voters said the economy was in bad shape, and they favored the out-of-power Republicans by 26 points, helping the GOP to a 52-seat gain and control of Congress for the first time in 42 years.

In Virginia on Tuesday, voters who were “very” worried about the economy concern supported the Republican winner, Bob McDonnell by a wide margin, 77-23 percent.

Against Barrett, Walker could force an even split of Milwaukee County’s vote. If that happens, we’re likely to see a huge election night for Walker and the Republican Party, and the electoral map of Wisconsin will look like Virginia’s.

Regardless of Barrett’s personal considerations, ultimately he will have to decide whether he wants to risk looking like Tom Loftus when the election is over – completely unelectable statewide. Or will Barrett wait until a more favorable time for Democrats? After all, he is not that old, and he is unlikely to be seriously challenged as mayor.

When Barrett looked at the bloody mess of Virginia the morning after, was it with horror? Or was it relief that his decision was made that much easier?

Senator Jim Webb (D-VA) said on ABC’s This Week that he was no longer in favor of closing the detention facilities at Guantanamo Bay on the President’s time table. (Senator Jon Kyl R-AZ was also there.)

STEPHANOPOULOS: I don’t know — well, let me just interrupt you there, because I have an AP story from April 2007 where you said — it says that you told reporters that detainees should either be declared prisoners of war or charged in the American judicial system.

“We can’t just continue to hold people in limbo without charges for this period of time and still call ourselves Americans.”

WEBB: If I said charged in the American judicial system, I would mean under the traditions of the rules of evidence and these sorts of things. But my view has always been that we need to move these people forward.

We need to find those people who should be held accountable and hold them accountable. And people who have been held inappropriately should be released.

But I don’t believe that the situation with people in Guantanamo, as opposed to others who have conducted activities in the United States are the same. I think that the people who have been held in Guantanamo are being charged essentially for acts of international terror, for acts of war, and they don’t belong in judicial system, and they don’t belong in our jails.

STEPHANOPOULOS: This is what the commissions…

WEBB: And I don’t believe — I do, I do. But with this caveat, we need commissions like this because there are issues of evidence that you cannot take care of inside the regular American court system, classified information that might have an impact on how we collect intelligence and those sorts of things.

And there are facilities built in Guantanamo right now that are able to do that.

My favorite part of the interview:

STEPHANOPOULOS: You laid out nicely the various groups of detainees that the president has to deal with, which, of course, brings us to the question of, what to do with those detainees once Guantanamo is closed, as the president has called for.

I know this is creating a lot of controversy in the Senate because of the possibility that some of these detainees may have to come to the United States.

And the attorney general, Eric Holder, was asked about this at the Senate this week, and he said very clearly that no dangerous detainees will be released in the United States.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ERIC HOLDER, ATTORNEY GENERAL: I don’t know, whatever quantum of proof, however you want to describe it, to believe that a person posed a danger to the United States, we will do all that we can to ensure that that person remains detained and does not become a danger to the American people.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

STEPHANOPOULOS: And is that enough assurance for you, Senator Kyl?

KYL: Well, understand that we’ve already released those who, after careful examination, we thought didn’t pose a danger. And the number is somewhere between 30 and 60 who turned out to continue to conduct their activities against us after they were released.

The remaining 240 or so do pose a danger. So there aren’t any left that can easily be released because they don’t pose a danger.

STEPHANOPOULOS: Well, that’s not exactly true, right? And I want to bring Senator Webb in on this, because I know there are about 17, I believe, Chinese Uighurs, they are called, who have been ordered released by a federal court, they’ve determined not to be a threat to the United States.

And the administration has been working on plans to bring them to Virginia. Can you accept them in your state?

WEBB: Well, let me back up for a minute. The answer is no.

STEPHANOPOULOS: No?

WEBB: No. And I’ll — and then let me explain why. But to back it up, the numbers that we’ve seen in my office are about 800 people have gone through Guantanamo.

The majority of those who have been released, we’re down to 220 to 240, so the majority of those that have been released have been released to third countries, not actually released out into the open — you know, to where they can… STEPHANOPOULOS: Just let out the door, right.

WEBB: Yes, right. So we don’t know really where they have gone. This other group deserves due process. They deserve, in the right kind of environment, and I support what the president is doing on the military commissions, to have their cases examined, to see whether or not they should continue to be detained.

The situation with the Chinese Uighurs that you’re talking about, on the one hand, it can be argued that they were simply conducting dissident activities against the government of China.

On the other, they accepted training from al Qaeda and as a result they have taken part in terrorism. I don’t believe they should come to the United States.

STEPHANOPOULOS: Not to the United States and not Virginia.

WEBB: No, I don’t believe so.

KYL: No, I totally agree.

In other words, I was totally in favor of closing Club Gitmo and bringing them to the United States. Then somebody showed me the file. Whoah. What happened to the accountants and the actuaries? Man, what a bunch of thugs. “Capable of blowing up an entire airport with cleaning supplies found in any airport janitorial closet. Spent two years training with al Qaeda to be a vicious killer. Really dangerous.” And then they said they want put them where? Virginia? My state? You gotta be kidding me. I got an idea. Let’s put ‘em on an island somewhere. Oh, wait. They are on an island. F–k it. Just keep ‘em there.

You know that’s exactly what happened. Hilarious to watch Democrats suddenly stop believing in “artificial timelines” when it’s a Democratic President who wants to release some of these guys in Virginia. Video at the Huffington Post.