Friday, October 28th, 2016

Keys to Senate District 12


The MacIver Institute’s experts offer up this analysis of who benefits from what areas. The analysis presumes a “healthy, not presidential” turnout.

Senate District 12 keys (From the MacIver Institute)

MENOMINEE County Preview — This small county only has two election reporting units, but their impact is huge. Every year as returns come in, a majority of pundits jump to conclusions before Menominee Co reports. That would be a mistake…

ONEIDA County Preview — Look for Kim Simac to win western Oneida (Minocqua area) but Sen. Holperin should have huge percentages and margins in the Rhinelander area of Oneida county. In his previous 8 legislative elections Jim has never carried Minocqua, but has always carried Rhinelander with margins greater than those typically seen by a Democrat. As a result, Holperin’s margin in Oneida on Tuesday will almost certainly be the largest of any county in the 12th Senate District.

VILAS County Preview — Typically the most Republican county in the 12th district, Vilas is also the home to Senator Holperin (also home to Kim Simac). In the past, Holperin’s strength here has kept the Republican candidate from rolling up any margin in the county. In 2008, Holperin and his Republican challenger fought to a statistical tie in Vilas county with Holperin winning by 23 votes out of more than 13,500 cast in the county. Simac’s strength here will come from the western part of the county (except Lac du Flambeau) with Holperin pulling better in the Eagle River side of the county and in Lac du Flambeau.

A friend of mine said the other day, we’ll see if the Vilas County Republicans actually live up to their talk.

I’m skeptical that Simac can pull it out after the tar-and-feathering she’s received in this race. Unfortunately I don’t believe the race became enough of a referendum on the incumbent to toss him out because of all of the issues surrounding Simac. However, I have been pleasantly surprised before and I haven’t been in Vilas County since July.

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