Thursday, December 8th, 2016

Sabato Crystal Ball moves presidential race in Wisconsin to toss-up

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University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato is moving Wisconsin into the “toss-up” category for the presidential race:

Wisconsin now a presidential toss-up

Mitt Romney’s selection of Paul Ryan hasn’t appeared to have had much of a polling impact nationally — at least not yet — but it has seemed to move the needle in Ryan’s home state of Wisconsin.

Four Wisconsin polls have come out since the Ryan selection, and they average just a 1.25 percentage point lead for Barack Obama. That’s comparable to other states rightfully called toss-ups, so for the first time in this election cycle, we’re adding a toss-up state. Wisconsin is shifted from leans Democratic to toss-up, joining Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia. That leaves 237 electoral votes leaning, likely or safe for President Obama, 206 leaning, likely or safe for Mitt Romney and 95 in the toss-up category.

Based on its Democratic history and the historically minor effect that running mates seem to have in their home states, we have resisted the Wisconsin change. But we go where the data take us, and for now, that’s to toss-up.

You’ll also want to read Professor Joel Goldstein’s analysis explaining how the pick of Paul Ryan by Mitt Romney fits historically.

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