Wednesday, October 26th, 2016

The best mea culpa from a poll analyst yet:   No, I didn’t predict that the Republican Party would lose its fucking mind. — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) May 5, 2016 Hey, neither did I, but I’m losing my mind, too, after what happened Tuesday. Print this entry

Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight website always has interesting reading on polling (and I’m not saying it just because they linked to me.) If you’re a consumer of political polls like I am then you’ll want to read about FiveThirtyEight’s poll of pollsters. In their responses, most pollsters predict Republicans will win the Senate by a narrow […]

This week at the MacIver Institute, I did my best to try to make sense of the election in it’s immediate aftermath. The most important lesson is to trust the (state) polls – until you can’t. Somewhere in the bowels of the New York Times, I’m imagining a WOPR-like machine from the movie War Games […]

Drunk Nate Silver is riding the subway, telling strangers the day they will die — Dan Levitan (@levitandan) November 8, 2012 Print this entry

When in doubt, trust the polls. Nate Silver is going to be insufferable. Print this entry

Not that long ago, a local public official complained that I was bringing up something from the past. That prompted a response from me to the effect that the oracular function of the newspaper is usually restricted to the horoscopes, and that most of what appeared in a newspaper occurred in the past. I should […]

The polls are undersampling 9-year-olds and cookie monsters, which is why you don’t see Obama getting a Big Bird Bounce. — Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) October 8, 2012 Print this entry

The New York Times’ Nate Silver looked at the final polling numbers, including Public Policy Polling’s last poll, and said a victory by Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett is looking increasingly unlikely. Although the contest is fairly close, polls of gubernatorial races are ordinarily quite reliable in the late stages of a race. We have not […]

Nate Silver, the campaign numbers guru for the New York Times, says Governor Scott Walker will likely survive the recall challenge. (His hate mail from Democrats has probably already started.) Silver says of the recall, Mr. Walker leads his Democratic opponent, Mayor Tom Barrett of Milwaukee, by an average of six percentage points in those […]