Saturday, October 22nd, 2016

While attention was focused on Charlie Sykes’ interview of Donald Trump this morning, more polling results about the Wisconsin primary were released. 0ptimus*, an IVR polling firm, released a poll taken March 22-24 that shows Trump slightly ahead of Ohio Governor John Kasich and Texas Senator Ted Cruz. Obviously, that’s not good news for Cruz. […]

How is this a service to their readers? The Cap Times has an election model of poll averages they’re using to forecast the election. Hey, it worked for that Nate Silver guy, right? But they’re still using in their average a result from a discredited poll that even the pollster won’t defend. Now they’re including […]

Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight website always has interesting reading on polling (and I’m not saying it just because they linked to me.) If you’re a consumer of political polls like I am then you’ll want to read about FiveThirtyEight’s poll of pollsters. In their responses, most pollsters predict Republicans will win the Senate by a narrow […]

Gravis Marketing decided to redo their poll after seeing the Marquette University Law School poll. (You can see the whole conversation leading up to the decision in the update on this blog post.) The new poll shows Governor Scott Walker beating Mary Burke 49.6% to 45.8%. Second Wisconsin Poll. Will be posted on website shortly. […]

Somebody call the Cap Times. The recent poll of Wisconsin voters by Gravis Marketing showing Mary Burke with a five point lead has been tossed into the shred bin. The team Gravis team has decided that we will redo the WI poll due to a skew in Milwaukee respondents. After reviewing the data — Gravis […]

Gee, how exciting. A poll conducted by Gravis Marketing shows Mary Burke up 50% to 45% over Governor Scott Walker. I would take it seriously except it was an automated poll of registered, not likely, voters, conducted over two days. Oh, and the pollster couldn’t even name the right candidates in the state treasurer’s race. […]

One last word about Nate Silver, polling, etc. If someone disagreed with the outcome of Silver’s model or a recent poll, it does not mean they’re opposed to “math” or “science.” I’ve seen that criticism go unchallenged too often, including in the comments here. What was being criticized (incorrectly, as it turns out) was the […]

This week at the MacIver Institute, I did my best to try to make sense of the election in it’s immediate aftermath. The most important lesson is to trust the (state) polls – until you can’t. Somewhere in the bowels of the New York Times, I’m imagining a WOPR-like machine from the movie War Games […]

We’ll give Jim Geraghty of National Review the final word, for now. So a lot of people who don’t read me that closely are going to look at what follows and interpret it as “Jim’s saying the polls are always wrong.” That’s not what I’m saying, but I’m prefacing all of this with that prediction, […]

Not that long ago, a local public official complained that I was bringing up something from the past. That prompted a response from me to the effect that the oracular function of the newspaper is usually restricted to the horoscopes, and that most of what appeared in a newspaper occurred in the past. I should […]