Trying to make sense of it all
This week at the MacIver Institute, I did my best to try to make sense of the election in it’s immediate aftermath. The most important lesson is to trust the (state) polls – until you can’t.
Somewhere in the bowels of the New York Times, I’m imagining a WOPR-like machine from the movie War Games is asking Nate Silver, “Would you like to play a game?”
It was a rough night for those of us who thought we knew better than the polls and were complaining about “oversampling” of Democrats. As Taegan Goddard wrote on Twitter Tuesday night, the election oversampled Democrats. In other words, when in doubt, trust the polls.
That is not to say to trust all of the polls. When the smoke clears, some pollsters are going to have to answer for some weird results. But the coming meltdown of telephone polling due to cell phones is still not here.
Anyway, read the whole thing as I commented on the Secretary of Business, contraception, and blaming Bush.