Wednesday, August 21st, 2019

Good morning. It’s Election Day in Wisconsin

9

Supporters of Donald Trump took heart yesterday from a new poll by American Research Group (ARG) that showed Trump leading Texas Senator Ted Cruz in the presidential primary 42% to 32%, with Ohio Governor John Kasich coming in at 23%. It’s the classic, “Whoa if true,” Election eve news that gets the heart pounding.

Before the Trumpkins get too excited, ARG showed Kasich in first place in the Michigan primary 33% to Trump’s 31% with Cruz at a distant 15%. Three days later Trump won 36.5% to Cruz’s 24.9%. Kasich finished third at 24.3%.  At Allen West’s website, they note ARG’s mixed record:

ARG has had mixed results throughout the campaign, finding Trump a point back behind Cruz in Texas. Cruz ended up winning Texas by big margins, well more than 10 points.  In Florida, ARG had Trump up 25 points over Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) 78%–seven points too many. But in New Hampshire, ARG had Trump up 16 points–which was about right. Trump won the Granite State by 20 points.

FiveThirtyEight blog rates ARG with a C- in their poll grading. Allahpundit at HotAir.com says the flaw in the poll is that it underestimates Cruz’s share of the vote among men.

Meanwhile, the Emerson Poll shows movement in Cruz’s direction.

In the GOP race, Cruz is now five points ahead of Donald Trump (40% to 35%) with John Kasich at 21%. Two weeks ago, Cruz had a 1 point lead over Trump (36%-35%).

If Cruz is the primary winner, he will win 15 delegates, Cruz is also ahead in five of the eight congressional districts where three delegates will be awarded to the winner of each district. Trump is ahead in the third district 49%-24%, while the second and fourth districts appear to be toss-ups between all three of the candidates.

Trump continues to struggle with likely GOP primary voters with a 43% to 53% favorable to unfavorable rating. Cruz and Kasich are viewed much more favorable among primary voters: Cruz 58%-38% and Kasich – 69%-24% favorable to unfavorable ratings.

Cruz enjoys a 7 point lead among males over Trump 43% to 36% and Kasich 16%. Cruz holds a 3 point lead among women 35% to 32%, with Kasich at 28%.

The poll suggests that among those voting in the GOP primary – 57% will be Republicans and 37% Independents. Among this GOP voting group, Cruz leads among Republicans 46% to 31% for Trump, and 17% for Kasich. Independents break for Trump 37% to 34% with Kasich at 28%

The net result is FiveThirtyEight shows Cruz with a 91% chance of winning Wisconsin. The RealClearPolitics polling average has Cruz leading by 4.1%.

For the record, the presidential preference WiggyPoll is officially closed. It was an unscientific attempt to gauge reader support. Granted, most of the readers of the website are conservatives, and my preference was well known, but the poll was open to everyone to participate anonymously. The winner is…

On April 5th, which presidential candidate will get your vote?

  • Ted Cruz (54%, 206 Votes)
  • Donald Trump (21%, 81 Votes)
  • John Kasich (10%, 40 Votes)
  • Bernie Sanders (9%, 34 Votes)
  • Hilary Clinton (6%, 22 Votes)

Total Voters: 383

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Ted Cruz wins in a landslide. Amazingly, Donald Trump did not win an online poll. Congratulations to the Cruz campaign. Unfortunately I can’t award you any delegates.

Meanwhile, are the Trumpkins losing their enthusiasm?


My nephew was actually at the Trump rally and he told me that the theater did fill up and the crowd was enthusiastic. However, the lack of lines to get in suggests either the enthusiasm for Trump is diminished or it’s just too many rallies. Perhaps if the threat of violence was restored, like a Jerry Springer show, more people would be trying to attend. (Milwaukee attorney Dan Adams had the best observation the other day when he said there’s always a group of pro-wrestling fans that roots for the villains. Now they’re Donald Trump fans.)

Finally, I’m not going to make any predictions. I am only going to leave you with two columns, my endorsement of Ted Cruz and my column against voting for John Kasich. Good luck everybody, and, hey, let’s be careful out there.

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