Tuesday, July 16th, 2019

How the delegates will fall in Utah, Arizona and Wisconsin

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The Utah and Arizona primaries are on Tuesday and then the entire world turns its eyes to Wisconsin for the April 5th primary. How the delegates are allocated will play a role in determining how many delegates Senator Ted Cruz, Donald Trump and Governor John Kasich will each get. Utah is expected to go for Cruz while Trump is leading in Arizona, according to the polls. There has not been a real poll taken in Wisconsin since the field has been reduced to three candidates. The next Marquette Law School Poll results are not due until March 30th. The following is taken from The Green Papers:

Utah:

All 40 delegates to the Republican National Convention are bound to presidential contenders based on the voting in today’s Precinct Caucuses. Voting can be online or in person.

40 at-large National Convention delegates (including the 3 party leaders: the National Committeeman, the National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the Utah’s Republican Party) are bound to presidential contenders according to the statewide vote.

If a candidate receives a majority of the vote (more than 50%), that candidate is allocated all 40 National Convention delegates.

If 3 or more candidates receive 15% or more of the vote, the 40 National Convention delegates are proportionally allocated to those Presidential contenders receiving 15% or more of the vote. See the rounding rules below.

If fewer than 3 candidates receive 15% or more of the vote, the 40 National Convention delegates are proportionally allocated between all Presidential contenders. See the rounding rules below.

Proportional allocation rounding: Beginning with the candidate who received the most votes, multiply [the percentage of votes received] by [40 National Convention Delegates] and round any remainder up to the next whole number. Repeat for the next highest vote getter until all 40 delegates are allocated.

The delegates are bound on the first ballot:

“The national delegation shall be bound on the first ballot … the delegation shall not be allocated nor bound on any subsequent ballots. … If a candidate who was allocated delegates is not a candidate at the national convention … then all the delegates shall be re-allocated and bound to the remaining candidates.” [Utah Republican Party Bylaws 7.0.B]

Arizona:

Only voters who are registered in the Republican Party are eligible to vote in the Republican Presidential Primary.

All of 58 of Arizona’s delegates to the Republican National Convention are pledged to the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in today’s Arizona Presidential Primary.

How will the delegates vote?

“Each delegate to the national convention shall use his best efforts at the convention for the party’s presidential nominee candidate who received the greatest number of votes in the presidential preference election … until the candidate releases the delegate … withdraws from the race or until one convention nominating ballot.”

Wisconsin:

All 42 of Wisconsin’s delegates to the Republican National Convention are allocated to presidential contenders in the Wisconsin Presidential Primary.

24 district delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the 8 congressional districts: each congressional district is assigned 3 National Convention delegates and the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in that district will receive all 3 of that district’s National Convention delegates. [Republican Party of Wisconsin Constitution Article X Section 5.]

18 at-large delegates (10 base at-large delegates plus 5 bonus delegates plus 3 RNC delegates) are to be bound to the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in the primary statewide. [Republican Party of Wisconsin Constitution Article X Section 6.]

Interestingly, Wisconsin’s delegates are bound on the first ballot at the national convention, but then it gets more complicated:

National Convention Delegates are bound by the results of the primary unless either released by the candidate or the candidate fails to receive at least 1/3 of the total votes cast in any vote for nomination.

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