Saturday, August 24th, 2019

After further review, the Gravis Marketing poll in Wisconsin really sucked


Somebody call the Cap Times. The recent poll of Wisconsin voters by Gravis Marketing showing Mary Burke with a five point lead has been tossed into the shred bin.

I wrote about the flaws I saw in the poll on Monday, starting with using the wrong candidates in the polling in the state treasurer’s race. It just screamed incompetence. On Wednesday I saw the Cap Times had an article on the poll as if it was credible and they actually included it in their polling average model. They even wrote, “Jones said the model shows a 70 percent probability that Burke is ahead today, with a 63 percent probability that she will be leading on election day.” Even after the Marquette poll (a much more credible poll) was released, the Cap Times stood by including the Gravis poll in the polling average. That prompted a lengthy exchange between me and Jason Joyce.

Well, the trash is taken out now. We’ll see if the Cap Times continues to recycle it.

I’m curious what it finally took for Gravis Marketing to pull the poll? Did Townhall, the poll’s sponsor, or Conn Carroll who wrote the article for them start asking questions? Is it a case of the bad poll correcting itself after a good poll?

Update! Gravis Marketing is now claiming they aren’t pulling the poll, they’re just re-polling.


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