Thursday, October 27th, 2016

Better than 50 and leading the Democrats


Certainly not bad news for Governor Scott Walker in the latest poll. Marquette Law School will be doing monthly polling in Wisconsin, and the first of the series shows Walker with a favorable rating of 51%. Under 50% is usually a sign of trouble for the incumbent, although 51% is hardly a magic bullet that will protect Walker.

Perhaps of more interest is how Walker fares against potential Democratic challengers:

The poll finds Walker ahead of Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett by a 50 percent to 44 percent margin. Walker leads the only announced Democratic candidate, former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk, with a 49 percent to 42 percent margin. Walker leads former Congressman David Obey by 49 percent to 43 percent. Janesville Democratic State Senator Tim Cullen receives 40 percent to Walker’s 50 percent. While Walker consistently leads his Democratic opponents, the size of the lead is within the poll’s margin of error for all but Cullen.

Whether Walker’s policies are good for Wisconsin:

Asked to think about all the changes in state government over the past year, 54 percent said the changes would make the state better off in the long run, while 40 percent said the state would be worse off.

That’s a pretty substantial margin and plays well with Walker’s campaign theme so far. The right track/wrong track question has 50% saying the state is on the right track and 46% on the wrong track.

The other interesting number to me is Walker’s approval among independents, 54% to 34%.

Partisan divisions remain extremely strong, with some 87 percent of Republicans saying they approve of the job Walker is doing as governor while 82 percent of Democrats disapprove of how he is handling his job. Among independents Walker now holds a 54 percent to 34 percent approval majority. Overall, his approval rating stands at 51 to 46.

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