Monday, October 24th, 2016

Last minute predictions


The polls have not closed, and so I risk my reputation as a pundit while I gather myself for a “Primary Election Party” tonight. Just a reminder, predictions do not indicate preference.

First, the really easy prediction. Tonight I will re-tell the story of the yard signs in the trunk. I’ve added a new story, the hot dog story. Sorry, they are best told in person.

Second, there will not be a significant amount of cross-over voting. Despite the best effort of Charlie Sykes, there will not be a significant amount of cross-over voting in Milwaukee for Democrat Sheriff David Clarke, and there will not be a large amount of Democrats crossing over in the Carol Owens race.

Okay, on to the elections:

Milwaukee Sheriff: David Clarke will win, because of the odd combo of the black vote, white south-siders, and the white population on the far northwest side. Bobot never made a case to replace Clarke, and there are far too few East Side voters to elect someone county-wide. Clarke is hurt by Jeff Plale no longer turning out the vote in a competitive primary, and McNamara-McGraw will motivate some of the East Side to vote in bigger numbers. It won’t be enough.

Waukesha Sheriff: Trawicki. Even if he does believe in higher taxes.

Milwaukee DA: the non-nut, Chisholm.

Waukesha DA: I’m guessing Krueger’s support from the party and from Pro Life Wisconsin was not enough to overcome Schimel’s advantage with the law enforcement officers. However, it remains to be seen how many of them will vote in a Republican Primary. It’s real close, but I’m guessing Schimel.

Republican Attorney General: Van Hollen, although he still has not told us where the terrorists are training. And yes, that question about Van Hollen bothers me more than anything else about this race. But money does count for something, and the Waukesha Republican Party isn’t enough to win. Bucher never closed the financial gap, and Van Hollen dumped even more money in at the end. Van Hollen will be my poster child for years to come about lifting the caps on contributions to counter the individual wealth of a candidate. He won’t be a bad attorney general, he’ll just be the Republican version of Herb Kohl. While I disagreed with Bucher on many issues… that whopper by Van Hollen about the terrorists was more than I could swallow.

Democrat Attorney General: Peg Lautenschlager will eke it out, if only to keep me amused between now and November. Falk’s only case for getting rid of Lautenschlager, the drunk driving in a state car, has already been forgiven by many Democrats who don’t understand it will kill Lautenschlager in the general election.

State Assembly 98th District: In this order, Rich Zipperer, Mike Maxwell, Robert G. Collison, Frank Goodwin and Thomas Schellinger. Collison will finish first among the Libertarians. Zipperer won this election when he won the sole-endorsement of Wisconsin Right to Life. I think they held a debate in this primary because Waukesha GOP Chairman Don Taylor had some shopping to do in Brookfield.

And last but not least…

State Assembly 97th District: Waukesha Taxpayer League President Chris Lufter will defeat County Supervisor Bill Kramer, although I think the election will be close. Lufter had more direct mail, better direct mail, radio ads, a telephone campaign, and probably hit more doors than Kramer. Certainly more areas. Kramer had the advantage of the endorsements and backing from most of the party, and never was able to use either of them effectively. His fundraising certainly never lived up to it’s potential, and Lufter was able to keep pace fundraising with less overhead. Finally, Lufter’s attacks on Kramer’s record stung and were poorly answered. Of course, I say this as a complete Lufter partisan.

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