Friday, December 9th, 2016

Latest unemployment numbers dismal

0

Despite the spin from the governor’s office, Wisconsin is still headed in the wrong direction when it comes to jobs:

When we take into account the seasonal adjustment, instead of adding 32,000 private sector jobs, the Wisconsin economy lost 7,900 private sector jobs in May. The net change from a year ago is a loss of 37,400 jobs in the private sector.

Even the hospitality industry is worse off. In seasonally adjusted terms, 3,700 jobs were lost in May and 6,700 jobs were lost since last year. Using the terms the governor would prefer, in non-adjusted numbers leisure and hospitality may have added jobs in the last month, but there is still a loss of 7,500 jobs since last year.

Overall, Wisconsin’s economy in May added 1,600 jobs in seasonally adjusted terms, not the “tens of thousands” that the governor claimed.

According to the seasonally adjusted unemployment numbers, the number of government jobs in Wisconsin grew by 7,900. The net change in seasonally adjusted government jobs is plus 9,500. The other economic sectors that have seen any job growth in the last year are waste management and administrative services (5,500), educational services (3,100) and health care and social assistance (2,900).

State government alone added 3,100 jobs in the last month, although Department of Administration Deputy Secretary Dan Schooff says the numbers used by the federal Department of Labor “can be easily misconstrued.” Schooff says the actual number of state jobs increased only by 222 positions from April to May.

The federal government added 3,800 jobs using seasonally adjusted figures, while the local governments added 1,000 jobs using seasonally adjusted figures.

The MacIver Institute also does a great job of explaining how different unemployment numbers are “cherry picked” by state government to give a rosier picture.

DWD does not always lead with the not seasonally adjusted numbers in its monthly press releases. Sometimes the seasonally adjusted numbers are more positive, and that’s what the state leads with.

In fact, May was the first month this year that DWD focused on the non-seasonally adjusted numbers. The last time DWD went with not seasonally adjust numbers was in December.

Both sets of numbers usually appear in the state’s press release, but the less appealing numbers are buried in the story.

When we take into account the seasonal adjustment, instead of adding 32,000 private sector jobs, the Wisconsin economy lost 7,900 private sector jobs in May. The net change from a year ago is a loss of 37,400 jobs in the private sector.

In seasonally adjusted terms, 3,700 jobs were lost in in the hospitality sector in May and 6,700 jobs were lost since last year. In non-adjusted numbers leisure and hospitality may have added jobs in the last month, but there is still a loss of 7,500 jobs since last year.

Overall, in May Wisconsin’s economy (both private and public sector) added 1,600 jobs in seasonally-adjusted terms, as opposed to the “tens of thousands” that the governor claimed.

Be Sociable, Share!

Print this entry

Comments are closed.