Wednesday, September 28th, 2016

Wisconsin election predictions

2

I already predicted the margin of victory for Ron Johnson tomorrow. Let’s look at the races that directly affect the state of Wisconsin.

Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker should win convincingly on Tuesday. Aside from the polls, the geography just doesn’t work for Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett. There is just no way for Barrett to hold Walker under 40% in Milwaukee County. Waukesha and Dane will cancel each other out. Walker should run up huge margins in the suburbs surrounding Milwaukee County. That leaves northern Wisconsin where Congressman Dave Obey is not on the ballot, southwestern Wisconsin, and the Fox Valley. Where is Tom Barrett going to find the votes?

Add the polls into our prognostication mix and voila! Barrett toast. According to the last PPP/Daily Kos poll (hardly sympathetic to Republicans) Barrett’s unfavorables were actually greater than his favorables. Guess they never heard how he’s the Hero of West Allis.

By the way, I thought “fight” was off limits in that race. Then why is Barrett asking everyone to fight for him?

Finish the fight
From:
Tom Barrett
Add to Contacts
To: James
Dear Friend,

You’ve stood with me before.

Now I’m asking you to stand with me one last time.

Only two days remain and the race for Wisconsin governor is a statistical dead heat.

I have fought hard for the values we hold dear. Will you help me finish this fight so we can defend and protect all that you and I believe in?

Despite the violent rhetoric by Barrett, Walker should win 55% to 45%, and possibly by more.

The only question is how many Walker can bring into the legislature with him. If this is a wave election, Republicans should be able to win control of both legislative chambers. However, while I think the Assembly should tumble back to Republican control, the State Senate may be more difficult.

State Representative Leah Vukmir should beat State Senator Jim Sullivan. Sullivan won that district because of all of the oddities that surrounded State Senator Tom Reynolds. Despite efforts to paint Vukmir as “extreme” (oh no, she’s against tax increases!) the Democrats have not been able to define the race that way. Given the enthusiasm for Vukmir in the race and the lack of any killer issue preventing her from winning, while Sullivan supported raising payroll taxes to fund universal health care, Vukmir should win. Given how hard she campaigns even against relatively token opposition, Vukmir will win.

In Racine, State Senator John Lehman will be dragged down by the rail issue. Get used to saying Senator Van Wanggard. Besides, it’s Racine, and it’s the Republicans’ turn. If you have a better explanation how they pick their state senators, I’m open to the explanation.

Are Racine residents still barred from Miller Park?

That would be enough, and one would assume Ed Thompson should beat Kathleen Vinehout. Unfortunately, his health affected his campaigning. So much for cushion.

I heard two reactions from Republicans when former State Representative Frank Lasee won the Republican nomination to replace Alan Lasee. One was, “Oh s–t!” The other was, “His last name’s Lasee. He’ll be fine.” Put me in the scatological exclamation category, and that still leaves the GOP -1.

I could be wrong. After all, nobody expected George Petak to beat Joe Strohl in 1990. Of course, that was the year Tommy Thompson won re-election against Assembly Speaker Tom Loftus 58% to 41%.

In the other statewide offices, Attorney General JB Van Hollen should coast to an easy re-election. Somewhere in the crime lab they must have cooked up Scott Hassett in the test tubes.

“Let’s make him a DNR secretary. Nobody likes them.”
“Yeah!”
“Let’s make it so he doesn’t even have his law license!”
“Yeah!”
“Then, when he gets it back, let’s make it so he even screwed that up!”
“Aw, c’mon. Who is going to believe anyone is that stupid?”

Hassett’s fate was sealed when he turned in the nomination papers. Does Van Hollen crack 60%?

If anyone bothered to do a poll for the State Treasurer’s office, I would suspect that whatever name recognition Dawn Marie Sass has comes with high negatives, and deservedly so. Her opponent, Kurt Schuller, has promised to abolish the office. It’ll be easy for him to keep that promise after he wins since the state legislature will be ready to do the cutting for him.

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Doug La Follette will get to keep his long-term parking spot in the state employee garage. Even if Apostle David King wasn’t having a “Ma, Ma, where’s my Pa??” problem, it’s near impossible to knock La Follette out of office. Take the alleged scandal as a sign from God that La Follette will coast to re-election.

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